It’s been a rough stretch for trucking companies and brokers.
Throughout 2025, rates stayed flat, margins got squeezed, and peak season barely registered. Shippers called the shots all year too with plenty of trucks and no pressure to pay up. For some, it’s the loosest market they’ve seen since before the pandemic hangover set in.
But that kind of pain doesn’t last without consequences. Trucking companies are folding at a faster clip, the oversupply that’s suppressed rates for two-plus years is finally thinning out, and early signs of rebalancing are starting to show up in the data.
So where does that leave us heading into spring? We aim to answer that in this freight market update.
Contract vs. Spot Rates: Reading the Signals
Rates tell the story of any freight market, and right now, the story is complicated to say the least. Contract pricing held steady through 2025, spot rates swung more violently, yet neither side of the market moved enough to signal a real recovery.
The Rate Picture Right Now
National contract and spot rates barely budged year over year through late 2025. We’re talking less than 1% movement.
Hard to call that a recovery exactly.
Contract rates gave shippers and carriers a stable baseline to plan around, which kept most routing guides intact and compliance high.
The spot market, though, told a different story. A late-December capacity crunch sent tender rejections above 13% (the highest mark since 2022) and briefly pushed spot pricing up during the holidays.
However, those gains didn’t stick. Spot rates have since pulled back to normal seasonal levels as of mid-Q1, which tells you the underlying demand wasn’t strong enough to hold that momentum.
Mini-Bids and the Volatility Game
That holiday-driven convergence between contract and spot rates created an interesting window.
When the gap narrowed during Q4, shippers jumped on the chance to renegotiate lanes and run mini bids on short-term contracts. Some locked in lower rates, others pressure-tested their routing guides to see which carriers would take on extra volume at tighter margins.
It worked, until it didn’t.
The spread widened again through November as demand softened, and those mini-bid savings started evaporating.
Seasonal Blip or Something Bigger?
So, if rates only firmed up briefly and mini-bid gains faded, does any of it matter?
Actually, yes.
Many chalk up the late-2025 rate bump to seasonal demand and pre-buy activity, and they’re right on the surface. But structural forces are quietly building underneath. Carrier exits continue to outpace new entrants, and C.H. Robinson projects capacity will reach a more balanced level by mid-2026.
That thinning supply is already showing up in forecasts. Analysts now expect spot rates to climb roughly 6% year over year, up from earlier 4% projections. Contract rates tend to follow spot movement with a lag, so sustained upward pressure on spot pricing will eventually pull contracts along too.
At the same time, spring’s produce and beverage season should lift rates off a higher floor than last year. Yet, a true, lasting upcycle likely needs a demand catalyst like inventory restocking or broader economic growth to take hold.
Cargo Theft & Fraud: Still Elusive, Still Hard to Solve
Rate talk dominates every freight conversation, but here’s a number that deserves equal attention: $725 million.
That’s how much the industry lost to cargo theft in 2025, according to Verisk CargoNet data: 3,594 confirmed events, a 60% spike over 2024, with an average stolen load worth roughly $274,000.
What’s most concerning, though, is how the criminals pulling off these heists have become more organized, sophisticated, and better at their jobs faster than the industry is getting better at stopping them.
The New Face of Cargo Theft
Organized rings are handpicking high-value targets: electronics, computing hardware, precious metals. But what’s telling is how they’ve moved away from brute-force theft and toward advanced fraud.
Back in 2018, fictitious pickups and identity schemes made up about 2% of cargo theft cases. By 2023, that number jumped to 25%, and it hasn’t slowed down. From a criminal’s perspective, why risk a violent hijacking when you can impersonate a carrier, shake a few hands at the dock, and vanish with the freight?
Theft rings now look almost indistinguishable from logistics companies. They build fake carrier identities with valid DOT numbers, active insurance, and spoofed phone systems. They book loads through legitimate channels, show up with matching paperwork, and drive off with six figures of freight.
Why the Tech Isn’t Enough (Yet)
The industry has invested heavily in fighting back with tools like digital carrier vetting platforms, GPS tracking, geofenced yards, and blockchain documentation. However, while each tool solves a piece of the puzzle, criminals adapt faster than platforms update.
A 2025 case proved the point: A sham outfit called MTC Cargo Inc. sailed through a vetting platform’s checks with clean credentials and then stole multiple shipments before anyone caught on.
Sophisticated rings know exactly what these platforms screen for, and build their fake identities to clear every bar. Plug one hole, and they find the next one. Tighten onboarding standards, and they start recruiting clean-record drivers to act as mules. Add identity verification, and they steal credentials from real carriers.
Building a Defense That Holds Up
So, what actually works?
Not any single tool. That’s the first thing to get straight.
GPS tracking alone won’t stop a sophisticated ring. Neither will identity verification on its own, nor high-security locks, nor secured lots. But stack all of them together, and you become a fundamentally harder target.
New comprehensive solutions to stop cargo theft “cold” are being developed, but they will take time to fully develop, test and roll out. In the meantime, a combination of existing tools and strategies is necessary to slow the growth of cargo theft, though these measures are only partially effective.
Regulatory & Compliance Updates: The Rules Are Changing Fast
Federal and state regulators have also spent the last year tightening the screws on everything from driver licensing to broker transparency and financial accountability. Some of these changes carry real teeth, and a few could completely change your operation depending on where your trucks run.
Florida Draws a Hard Line
Florida grabbed the biggest headlines.
After a fatal August 2025 accident involving an undocumented driver, Florida lawmakers advanced legislation that would fine carriers $50,000 per incident for employing undocumented drivers, impound their trucks, and ban them from state highways. Troopers would detain the driver and turn them over to ICE on the spot.
The industry is split. Safety advocates call it overdue. Critics warn that pulling thousands of immigrant drivers off the road (many with clean records) will squeeze capacity in a state already short on it.
Love it or hate it, any carrier running loads through Florida needs to take it seriously.
CDL Loopholes Are Closing
Florida’s crackdown fits into a broader pattern.
The FMCSA has been phasing out non-domiciled CDLs (licenses issued to drivers who don’t actually live in the issuing state) after fraud rings exploited the system for years. Thousands of shady CDL testing centers and training programs have already been shut down. States are now conducting English proficiency checks at inspection stations, and brokers are starting to screen out carriers whose principals hold non-domiciled licenses.
What All of It Means for You
The FMCSA also flipped the switch on January 16, 2026, on new broker financial responsibility rules. If a broker’s surety bond drops below the $75,000 minimum, they have seven days to replenish it, or their authority is immediately suspended. No grace period.
This matters for carriers too. OOIDA pushed for the change to protect truckers from getting stiffed when underfunded brokers collapse. Carriers should be vetting their broker partners’ financial health just as closely as brokers vet them.
Shippers aren’t off the hook either. Tighter enforcement means the partners you choose directly affect your liability exposure. A carrier with questionable CDL practices or a broker skating on bond requirements becomes your problem the moment something goes wrong.
Insurance & Equipment Costs: The Squeeze That Won’t Let Up
Insurance and equipment costs have also climbed for years, and the pain keeps moving in 2026. When tractor prices cool off, trailer costs spike. When you think auto liability might ease, another nuclear verdict reminds the market why it won’t. And around and around we go.
The Insurance Market Went From “Very Hard” to “Still Hard”
The broader commercial insurance market has softened, but commercial auto liability hasn’t gotten the memo.
Insurers lost money on auto for the fifth straight year, paying out $1.04 for every premium dollar collected. Marsh reported U.S. casualty rates up 9% in Q4 2025, and Aon expects Q1 2026 renewals between 7% and 15%, depending on risk profile.
That wide range is the point: Underwriters are drawing a hard line between fleets with documented safety programs, clean loss runs, and credible data — and everyone else. The days of taking your premium and not asking questions are over.
Equipment Costs Shifted, They Didn’t Shrink
Those rising premiums hit harder when equipment costs are squeezing you from the other side.
Even though tractor prices finally calmed down with the BLS producer price index for heavy-duty trucks rising just 1.5% through December 2025, the inflation simply moved elsewhere. Trailer costs jumped 6.4%. Maintenance and repair climbed 5.4%. Parts added another 3.5%. And with prime parked at 6.75%, financing a new unit still stings.
Trucking companies trying to dodge these costs by running older equipment longer are also trading one problem for another: more breakdowns, more downtime, and uglier loss runs that make the next insurance renewal even more expensive. Selling those aging units isn’t a clean exit either — used Class 8 values have stabilized around the mid-$50K range, but swing enough month to month that offloading under pressure can cost thousands.
What’s Structural and What’s Cyclical
Nuclear verdicts, rising repair severity, tighter underwriting standards, and growing cargo theft losses aren’t going away. They’re baked into how insurers price transportation risk now. Budget for them as permanent cost features, not temporary bumps.
On the flip side, not every line is moving against you. Property rates dropped 8% in Q4 2025, cyber fell 3%, and workers’ comp declined nearly 2%. That creates a real window to rebalance your portfolio and lock in better terms on softer lines while you can.
Where Trucking Companies and Brokers Can Get Smart
The market is rewarding preparation. Fleets that show up to renewal with clean loss runs, documented safety programs, and credible data are seeing meaningfully better outcomes than everyone else.
Start renewals 120 to 180 days early. Build a loss narrative your underwriter can defend internally. Quantify how much risk you’re retaining below rising attachment points.
And stop treating equipment and insurance as separate budget lines. Run actual total-cost-of-ownership numbers with current financing rates against the maintenance and downtime costs of aging trucks. These are connected problems.
Good news! Cavalry is on the way! Affordable AI-powered risk management tools are emerging to help trucking companies better control driver and business risks.
So, Where Does That Leave You?
Flat rates, rising costs, evolving cargo threats, tighter regulations, and pressure to automate. That’s a full plate, and nobody’s clearing it with spreadsheets and gut instinct anymore.
EKA Solutions’ Omni-TMS™ and tech ecosystem are built for today’s freight market. Our AI-powered platform automates load matching, dispatch, real-time visibility, on-time delivery, detention management, compliance tracking, and document management all from one cloud-based hub. This helps your team spend less time on manual tasks and more time making key decisions. Designed for midsized trucking companies, brokers, 3PLs, and logistics firms, it delivers enterprise-grade features without the cost and complexity.
The freight market is unpredictable, but your operation should always be prepared to deliver each load at the lowest possible cost and always on-time. Ready to see how EKA can work for your business? Contact us for a demo, and let’s talk.