Freight demand in 2025 remains weak due to a prolonged “freight recession” caused by post-pandemic shifts from goods to services, overstocked retailers, new tariffs, high interest rates, and an oversupply of trucks compared to shipments. These factors have led to low shipment volumes, depressed rates, and increased carrier bankruptcies, with recovery still uncertain.
Although U.S. GDP is expected to grow around 1.9% in 2025 — potentially reaching 3% — almost all growth in the first half of the year came from investment in data centers and information technology. However, AI data center construction has a minimal effect on freight demand, accounting for just a small fraction of overall construction spending. At $41 billion, data center spending represents only 2.5% of the $1.6 trillion annual construction market, meaning it does little to boost trucking volumes.
You’ve probably heard the optimistic take on the trucking industry: Regulatory crackdowns on non-domiciled CDLs and fraudulent training mills will force nearly 194,000 drivers out of the industry. Capacity tightens, rates climb, and the market finally turns. Morgan Stanley is betting on it.
Here’s the problem with that story, though. It’s not so cut and dry.
Freight volumes have fallen 3% year-over-year, and the restocking surge that was supposed to lift trucking never materialized. In other words, demand is still soft. So, when you cut 5% of capacity into a market that doesn’t need it anyway, you’re not creating a rate boom. You’re just trimming the fat.
That’s the real 2026 trucking industry outlook for midsize carriers and brokers: a market in which the math only works if you’re running leaner and smarter than you were last year.
We’ve broken down what’s ahead and what you can actually do about it.
Weak Demand Fundamentals Persist
The 2026 trucking industry outlook starts with a hard truth: The freight just isn’t there yet.
Manufacturing output barely clawed back to 2019 levels through 2025. Consumer spending kept tilting toward services instead of goods. Retailers held inventories lean, killing any hope of a restocking-driven freight wave. And the result was trucking volumes slipping about 3% year-over-year.
Now look at what’s coming. FTR Transportation Intelligence projects rate growth between zero and 2% for 2026. Container imports fell double digits in the last few months, which means port freight isn’t riding to the rescue. The best-case scenario most analysts can muster is a slow grind toward recovery by midyear, and that assumes we avoid a recession.
Put simply: There’s no cavalry coming. The freight that drove past rate rallies requires a broader goods economy rebound that nobody sees on the horizon. Until that changes, efficiency isn’t optional. It’s how you survive a stagnant market.
Regulatory Shifts Tighten Driver Supply
So, demand is weak. What about the supply side of the 2026 trucking industry outlook?
Two regulatory moves are pulling drivers off the road faster than anyone expected.
First, the DOT’s crackdown on non-domiciled CDLs will phase out roughly 194,000 drivers over the next two years. Only certain visa holders can now obtain or renew a CDL, and annual in-person renewals with full immigration verification are mandatory. Some insurers aren’t even waiting for licenses to expire. They’re already refusing coverage for carriers using non-domiciled drivers.
Second, regulators axed nearly 3,000 fraudulent “CDL mill” training schools and put another 4,500 on notice. Fewer bad actors mean fewer new drivers entering the pipeline.
Add it up, and you’re looking at a 5% capacity reduction. That would usually spark a rate rally. But with freight demand still flat, the math changes.
Expect stabilization, not a surge.
Only Modest Rate Relief in Sight
Fewer drivers should mean better rates, right? Reality tells a more complicated story.
Morgan Stanley’s base case calls for mid-single-digit contract rate increases, maybe 5%. That bull scenario pushes into high-single or low-double digits, but that requires aggressive enforcement and no recession. FTR is even more cautious, projecting contract rate growth under 2%.
That wouldn’t even cover rising costs for insurance, parts, and driver pay.
Spot rates will likely firm up first. The last few months have already shown load-to-truck ratios doubling in some regions as non-citizen drivers left the market. Expect spot to climb 5-10% while contracts lag at 2-5%. Shippers won’t budge much on annual bids when demand stays soft.
The bottom line: 2026 won’t be 2021. Rates will melt up slowly, not spike. Carriers banking on rate relief to fix their margins will come up short. The gap must come from somewhere else.
Continued Carrier Shakeout and Competition
So, then, where does that gap come from?
For plenty of trucking companies, it won’t come from anywhere at all. And that’s shaping the 2026 trucking industry outlook into a year of reckoning.
The shakeout already started. Low rates through 2025 pushed small fleets to close or downsize, and the pressure won’t let up. Insurance premiums now run $15,000 to $25,000 per truck. Diesel stays volatile. Driver wages keep climbing as the qualified pool shrinks. A 2% rate bump doesn’t cover any of that.
FTR Vice President of Trucking Avery Vise put it bluntly: “We will lose a lot of carriers” if rate growth stays this weak. Every closure tightens capacity slightly, but the pain falls hardest on small and midsize operations. Large, well-capitalized fleets will absorb market share and scoop up cheap equipment from the exits.
For brokers, the shakeout cuts both ways. Fewer micro-carriers mean simpler vetting. But struggling fleets mean service failures and last-minute coverage gaps.
It’s a “survival of the fittest” type of situation. Carriers and brokers who adapt fastest will naturally take share from those still waiting for conditions to improve.
Efficiency and Technology Become Even More Important
So, what separates the trucking companies and brokers who survive 2026 from those who don’t? Everything keeps pointing to the same answer: efficiency.
Consider that many fleets still run 20-35% of their miles empty. When freight softens, that number climbs past 50% for some operations. Every deadhead mile burns fuel and driver hours without generating revenue. With rates barely moving and capacity shrinking, that kind of waste will sink you.
Here’s the flip side. Ten drivers running at 85% loaded miles will move more freight than 15 drivers at 65%. A leaner operation, run well, can match the output of a larger fleet that treats utilization as an afterthought. Lose 5% of your drivers but gain 10% efficiency, and you come out ahead.
Brokers face the same reality. Fewer available trucks mean speed wins.
That’s where technology earns its keep. AI-powered dispatch fills empty miles. Predictive routing works around hours-of-service constraints. Automated alerts flag problems before they cascade into service failures.
Tying It All Together: Let EKA Solutions Spearhead Your 2026 Strategies for Success
In 2026, demand won’t bail you out, and rates won’t save you. If you are using a legacy TMS, you are out of luck — they offer technology solutions that belong in the Smithsonian, their response is slow like the flow of molasses and, to boot, they charge you “Gilded Age” implementation pricing.
The only trucking companies and brokers who will come out ahead will be the ones who build efficiency into everything they do, starting now, and using every technological tool they can get their hands on.
EKA Solutions’ Omni-TMS™ was built for exactly that:
- AI-Powered Load Optimization: Stop guessing which truck takes which load. Let the algorithm match drivers to freight, sequence routes, and kill deadhead miles before they drain your margins.
- Automated Back-Office Workflows: Your team didn’t sign up to chase paperwork. Auto-capture PODs, trigger invoices instantly, and flag detention before it becomes a three-hour argument nobody wins.
- Predictive Visibility Tools: Shippers hate surprises. Give them enterprise-grade ETAs without your dispatchers babysitting every load. High-priority freight gets hourly pings. Everything else runs quietly until something needs attention.
- Built-In Compliance Management: Regulators aren’t playing around anymore. Track CDL expirations, clearinghouse queries, HOS logs, initiate drug and alcohol testing and stay in tune with FMCSA violations in one place so you’re not a cautionary tale.
- Driver-First Communication: Drivers want answers fast and prefer to deal with human beings instead of only robots. Automate the routine check-ins, but make sure a real person picks up when the load falls apart at 2 a.m.
The Takeaway for 2026: Efficiency Wins, Excuses Don’t
Here’s what the 2026 trucking industry outlook comes down to. Demand isn’t rebounding. Rates aren’t spiking. Nearly 200,000 drivers will leave the industry, and the market will shrug because there’s not enough freight to miss them. Trucking companies and brokers who spend next year waiting for the cycle to turn will watch their margins evaporate while competitors who figured out how to run leaner take their customers. The takeaway is simple, even if the execution isn’t: You either operate with extreme efficiency or you find the exit.
At EKA Solutions, we’ve seen this movie before. And it doesn’t always have a happy ending. But our Omni-TMS™ aims to turn the tide in your favor with unparalleled speed of customer service during the entire life cycle of engagement, AI-powered automated workflows, predictive visibility, and fundamental compliance tools all built into one platform for midsize operators who refuse to get squeezed out. We’re not here to sell you software and disappear. We’re here to help you quickly build an operation that prints margin when the market won’t give you any and be your business partner for the long term.
Reach out today, and let’s figure out what your 2026 looks like when you stop hoping and start running extremely efficiently.